Developing Africa’s energy mix     

Gregor Schwerhoff  Mouhamadou Sy 《Climate Policy》2019,19(1):108-124

Africa is growing rapidly both in terms of population size and economically. It is also becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuels impose a high price on society through local environmental pollution and Africa’s particular vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, Africa has an excellent renewable energy potential and prices for renewable energy are reaching the price range of fossil fuels. Comparing results from state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models we find different options for achieving a sustainable energy supply in Africa. They have in common, however, that strong economic development is considered compatible with the 2°C climate target. Taking both challenges and appropriate solutions into account, some models find that a complete switch to renewable energy in electricity production is possible in the medium term. The continental analysis identifies important synergy effects, in particular the exchange of electricity between neighbouring countries. The optimal energy mix varies considerably between African countries, but there is sufficient renewable energy for each country. The intermittency and higher capital intensity of renewable energy are important challenges, but proven solutions are available for them. In addition, we analyse the political economy of a sustainable energy transition in Africa.

Key policy insights

• An almost complete shift towards renewable energy (RE) is considered feasible and affordable in Africa.

• By 2050, electricity generation could be sourced largely from solar, wind and hydro power.

• Prices for RE in Africa are now within the price range of fossil fuels, partly due to the excellent RE potential.

• The optimal energy mix varies strongly between countries, but RE is sufficiently available everywhere.

• Addressing intermittency is possible, but requires investments and cooperation on the grid.

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P-T-X-controlled element transport through granulite-facies ternary feldspar from Lofoten,Norway   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Katharina Hartmann  Richard Wirth  Gregor Markl 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2008,156(3):359-375

Fluid transport on the grain-scale controls many rock properties and governs chemical exchange. Charnockites from Lofoten indicate fluid penetration into ternary alkali feldspars controlled by their microtextures. In a process of fluid infiltration at granulite-facies conditions (∼600°C and 8–11 kbar), tiny pyroxenes enclosed in alkali feldspar reacted to amphiboles, which are always spatially connected to perthitic albite. Investigation of these microtextures by TEM imaging of Focused Ion Beam (FIB) prepared foils revealed that pyroxenes in contact with albite lamellae show dissolution features. An amorphous Fe- and Cl-bearing material interpreted to be a residuum of the percolating fluid was found within albite lamellae. Textures and mineral compositions indicate that a Cl-rich aqueous fluid attacked the lamellae, which then provided pathways for further fluid flow. A correspondence was found between feldspar compositions, their microtexture and their degree of alteration as a result of their permeability for fluids at specific temperatures. Hence, in addition to pressure and temperature, small variations of feldspar composition can strongly influence the fluid permeability of feldspathic rocks under lower crustal conditions.  相似文献   

Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets,ERA Interim reanalysis,and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gregor Skok  Nedjeljka Žagar  Luka Honzak  Rahela Žabkar  Jože Rakovec  Andrej Ceglar 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,123(1-2):217-232

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Indicative mean transit time estimation from δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O values as groundwater vulnerability indicator in karst-fissure aquifers     

P. Malík  J. Švasta  J. Michalko  M. Gregor 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(12):988

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Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector     

Hermann Held  Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe  Tobias Pardowitz  Joaquim G. Pinto  Uwe Ulbrich  Kai Born  Markus G. Donat  Melanie K. Karremann  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Patrick Ludwig  Katrin M. Nissen  Hermann Österle  Boris F. Prahl  Peter C. Werner  Daniel J. Befort  Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.  相似文献   

The evolution of spokes in Saturn's B ring     

Eberhard Grün  Gregor E. Morfill  Richard J. Terrile  Torrence V. Johnson  Gerhard Schwehm 《Icarus》1983,54(2):227-252

The optical appearance of spokes was studied in high resolution (?200 km/lp) images obtained by Voyager 2. Spokes are classified into three categories. (1) Extended spokes are seen in the distance interval of 100,000 to 112,000 km from Saturn's center. They have diffuse edges and are slightly wedge shaped. Their width at the base (towards Saturn) is about 20,000 km. Their active times (during which they increase in width) range from 4000 to 12,000 sec. (2) Narrow spokes are found in the distance range 104,000 to 116,000 km, have sharply defined edges, and are narrowest at the corotation distance (112, 300 km). Their typical radial extension and width is 6000 and 2,000 km, respectively. (3) Filamentary spokes are found outside 110,000 km mostly joined with a wider spoke further in. They are typically 3000 km in length and 500 km in width. Their active time is less than 1000 sec. Several narrow spokes were observed during formation along radial lines in the sunlit portion of the ring. The formation time is typically ?5 min for a 6000-km-long spoke. The rate of spoke formation is highest at the morning ansa outside Saturn's shadow. Several spokes have been found where one edge revolves with Keplerian speed whereas the other edge stays radial. Recurrent spoke patterns have been observed at the period of Saturn's rotation. From edge-on views of the ring system, an upper limit for the height of spokes of 80 km is derived.  相似文献   

Composition,export and faunal utilization of drift vegetation in the salt river submarine canyon     

Michael N. Josselyn  Gregor M. Cailliet  Thomas M. Niesen  Robert Cowen  Ann C. Hurley  Judith Connor  Sandra Hawes 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(4):447-465

Submarine canyons may be particularly important in the transport process of drift seagrasses and seaweeds from highly productive shallow lagoon areas to deeper water. We studied the composition, export, and faunal utilization of shallow, nearshore benthic vegetation as it was transported to offshore areas via the Salt River submarine canyon on the island of St Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. The study was conducted using a saturation diving system (NULS-1: Hydrolab) during two missions in April and August, 1980. Using bottom drifters deployed in Salt River Bay and the submarine canyon, we recorded net benthic current flow up to 2 cm s^?1 moving out of the lagoon and down the canyon to deeper water. Using bottom nets set up at the canyon head and at the 29 m isobar, and from transect surveys and drift clump samples, we determined drift plant export rates and drift clump biomass and species composition. The dominant drift plants were Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme and algae in the genera Dictyota, Dictyopterus, and Diloplus. During the second mission, the seagrass Halophila decipiens became more abundant, both in the drift and in large patches along the canyon floor. In both missions, more drift was collected in the nets during high wind conditions than during calmer days. Calculated turnover times ranged from 0·01 to 4·4 days for algae in the order Dictyotales and 4·4 to 18 days for Thalassia blades. Total exported biomass of drift vegetation varied between 1·4 to 65·1 kg wet wt day^?1. Samples of drift vegetation contained mostly juvenile forms of both invertebrates and fishes, but in relatively low numbers. Faunal numbers were most strongly related to rate of drift movement.  相似文献   

Source and origin of active and fossil thermal spring systems,northern Upper Rhine Graben,Germany     

Anselm Loges  Thomas Wagner  Thomas Kirnbauer  Susanne Göb  Michael Bau  Zsolt Berner  Gregor Markl 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

Thermal water samples and related young and fossil mineralization from a geothermal system at the northern margin of the Upper Rhine Graben have been investigated by combining hydrochemistry with stable and Sr isotope geochemistry. Actively discharging thermal springs and mineralization are present in a structural zone that extends over at least 60 km along strike, with two of the main centers of hydrothermal activity being Wiesbaden and Bad Nauheim. This setting provides the rare opportunity to link the chemistry and isotopic signatures of modern thermal waters directly with fossil mineralization dating back to at least 500–800 ka. The fossil thermal spring mineralization can be classified into two major types: barite-(pyrite) fracture filling associated with laterally-extensive silicification; and barite, goethite and silica impregnation mineralization in Tertiary sediments. Additionally, carbonatic sinters occur around active springs. Strontium isotope and trace element data suggest that mixing of a hot (>100 °C), deep-sourced thermal water with cooler groundwater from shallow aquifers is responsible for present-day thermal spring discharge and fossil mineralization. The correlation between both Sr and S isotope ratios and the elevation of the barite mineralization relative to the present-day water table in Wiesbaden is explained by mixing of deep-sourced thermal water having high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low δ³⁴S with shallow groundwater of lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and higher δ³⁴S. The Sr isotope data demonstrate that the hot thermal waters originate from an aquifer in the Variscan crystalline basement at depths of 3–5 km. The S isotope data show that impregnation-type mineralization is strongly influenced by mixing with SO₄ that has high δ³⁴S values. The fracture style mineralization formed by cooling of the thermal waters, whereas impregnation-type mineralization precipitated by mixing with SO₄-rich groundwater percolating through the sediments.  相似文献   

Sedimentary dynamics along carbonate slopes (Bahamas archipelago)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

Marco Wunsch  Christian Betzler  Sebastian Lindhorst  Thomas Lüdmann  Gregor P. Eberli 《Sedimentology》2017,64(3):631-657

Hydroacoustic and sedimentological data in the Santaren Channel covering both the leeward slope of Great Bahama Bank and the windward slope of Cay Sal Bank allow new insights into carbonate platform slope sedimentation. The data document the interplay between depositional and erosive processes on both slopes through time and provide information on the current regime and its influence on the slope sedimentary processes. This study emphasizes the diversity and complexity of the slope morphology and the sediment distribution of the youngest high‐frequency sequence, which has developed since the last glacial maximum. The processes triggering slope failures and the formation of channels and gullies differ on both slopes. At the leeward slope of the Great Bahama Bank, extensive slope failures occurred primarily during sea‐level lowering following an interglacial. These slope failures created a slope morphology that channelizes the exported platform sediments during the subsequent highstand. At the windward slope of Cay Sal Bank, contour currents and the local tectonic regime are responsible for slope failures. During sea‐level lowstands, downwelling induces turbidity currents. The interaction of turbidity and contour currents leads to the formation of a system of furrows and slope‐parallel sediment ridges. The discovered heterogeneities in slope sedimentation improve the understanding of carbonate slope sedimentation and provide implications for sequence stratigraphic interpretation of carbonate platform slopes.  相似文献   

The case for climate engineering research: an analysis of the “arm the future” argument     

Gregor Betz 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):473-485

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